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Kentucky Derby 2008 - Saturday, May 3 - 6:04 PM

The May 3rd running of the Kentucky Derby will be the 134th time that the race has been held. This first race in the coveted "Triple Crown" of horse racing attracts plenty of attention. Since 2005, when the purse went from one million to two million dollars, the "Run For The Roses" offers the biggest prize of all the Stakes races.

To choose the winner you need to know the pedigree of the horse and his past history in Stakes races. How the horse handles various track conditions can mean the difference between a win or an also ran. Who trains and rides the colt is another fact that handicappers look at. Pros can also look back on patterns of past Kentucky Derby winners and use that knowledge to predict the outcome.

Since 2000, only three of the horses who were favorites at the start of the Kentucky Derby finished in the money. In 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus won and in 2004 Smarty Jones won. Empire Maker placed in 2003. Harlan's Holiday (2002), Bellamy Road (2005) and Sweetnorthernsaint (2006) all heavy favorites finished seventh. The sweetheart of the odds makers in 2001, Point Given, ended his race in fifth place. In spite of all of the best guesses from odds makers, the final verdict can only be decided by the horse and rider when the winner crosses the finish line.

Kentucky Derby Post Position Order
(as of Wednesday April 30, 2008)

No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer
1.	Cool Coal Man	Velazquez	Pletcher
2.	Tale of Ekati	Coa	Tagg
3.	Anak Nakal	Bejarano	Zito
4.	Court Vision	Gomez	Mott
5.	Eight Belles	Saez	Jones
6.	Z Fortune	Albarado	Asmussen
7.	Big Truck	Castellano	Tagg
8.	Visionaire	Lezcano	Matz
9.	Pyro	Bridgmohan	Asmussen
10.	Colonel John	Nakatani	Jones
11.	Z Humor	Douglas	Mott
12.	Smooth Air	Cruz	Stutts
13.	Bob Black Jack	Migliore	Kasparoff
14.	Monba	Dominguez	Pletcher
15.	Adriano	Prado	Motion
16.	Denis of Cork	Borel	Carroll
17.	Cowboy Cal	Velazquez	Pletcher
18.	Recapturetheglory	Baird	Roussel
19.	Gayego	Smith	Lobo
20.	Big Brown	Desormeaux	Dutrow

Post positions draw is set. Trainers Tagg (Big Truck) and Matz (Visionaire) wind up in the first five. The history of the Derby says that top five selection picks don't help win the race. Only a few horses who had top selection picks won in the Kentucky Derby, but two of the horses who did wear the roses were picked by Matz (Barbaro) and Tagg (Funny Cide). In 2008, Matz picks position 8 for Visionaire, who is a definite contender to pick up some money in this race - that's the same pick he made for Barbaro. Will history repeat? Big Truck will start in position 7, right next to Visionaire.

Filly Eight Belles starts from the 5th position, which may mean a bit of bumping by the bigger horses, but you have to think that the trainer knows his horse...

It's been 16 years since the Bluegrass Stakes winner wore the Roses, so Monba, starting from the 14th spot, will have to break with recent history to win this one. His previous record includes some impressive wins and some disappointing loses... but the loses all came with solid excuses. This horse could surprise a lot of people with his Derby performance.

Big Brown gets the 16th pick, but the owners insist that where he starts makes no difference. He'll still come in number one. Colonel John, starting in a very comfortable 10th position, may have something to say about that.

In the Florida Derby, Big Brown started from the far outside post and rode to a win...the big horse will try to repeat his performance from the far outside 20th post position at the Run for the Roses.

*The four horses that were excluded in 2008 were Halo Najib, Tomcito, El Gato Malo and Kentucky Bear.
"The maxmum number of horses allowed to start in the Kentucky Derby is 20. The Graded Earnings are used to determine the order of preference for which horses are drawn into the Kentucky Derby if there are more than 20 horses." Source: Kentucky Derby.com

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